What Is Dutching?
Dutching is a betting strategy where you back multiple selections in the same event, distributing your stake so that you make the same profit regardless of which selection wins.
Named after the legendary gambler “Dutch” Schultz, this technique is particularly useful when you believe several outcomes have value but can’t decide which one to back.
The Core Concept
Instead of betting $100 on one horse at 5.00 odds, you might dutch three horses:
- Horse A at 5.00 odds
- Horse B at 6.00 odds
- Horse C at 8.00 odds
The calculator determines exactly how much to stake on each horse so your profit is identical whichever one wins.
How the Dutching Calculator Works
Inputs
- Total Stake: Your total betting budget for this event
- Odds: The odds for each selection you want to include
- Odds Format: Decimal, fractional, or American
What It Calculates
- Individual Stakes: Exactly how much to bet on each selection
- Potential Return: Your payout if any selection wins
- Profit: Your guaranteed profit if any selection wins
- Combined Probability: The total implied probability of your selections
The Dutching Formula
Individual Stake Calculation
For each selection:
Stake_i = Total Stake × (1/Odds_i) / Sum(1/Odds_j)
Where:
Stake_i= Stake for selection iOdds_i= Decimal odds for selection iSum(1/Odds_j)= Sum of inverse odds for all selections
Equal Return Calculation
The return from any winning selection:
Return = Total Stake / Sum(1/Odds_j)
Profit Calculation
Profit = Return - Total Stake
Dutching Examples
Example 1: Three Horse Race
Scenario: You want to dutch three horses with a $100 total stake.
| Horse | Decimal Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| A | 3.00 | 33.3% |
| B | 4.00 | 25.0% |
| C | 5.00 | 20.0% |
Step 1: Calculate sum of inverse odds
Sum = 1/3.00 + 1/4.00 + 1/5.00
Sum = 0.333 + 0.250 + 0.200
Sum = 0.783 (78.3% combined probability)
Step 2: Calculate individual stakes
Stake A = $100 × (0.333 / 0.783) = $42.55
Stake B = $100 × (0.250 / 0.783) = $31.91
Stake C = $100 × (0.200 / 0.783) = $25.54
Step 3: Calculate return
Return = $100 / 0.783 = $127.71
Results:
| Horse | Stake | If Wins | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | $42.55 | $127.65 | $27.65 |
| B | $31.91 | $127.64 | $27.64 |
| C | $25.54 | $127.70 | $27.70 |
Guaranteed profit: ~$27.70 (if any of the three horses wins)
Example 2: Soccer Match Dutching
Scenario: You think the away team won’t win. Dutch Home and Draw.
| Outcome | Decimal Odds |
|---|---|
| Home Win | 2.10 |
| Draw | 3.40 |
Total Stake: $50
Calculations:
Sum = 1/2.10 + 1/3.40 = 0.476 + 0.294 = 0.770
Stake Home = $50 × (0.476 / 0.770) = $30.91
Stake Draw = $50 × (0.294 / 0.770) = $19.09
Return = $50 / 0.770 = $64.94
Profit = $64.94 - $50 = $14.94
Combined probability: 77% - You’re profitable if the away team doesn’t win.
Example 3: When Dutching Loses Money
Scenario: Dutch two heavy favorites.
| Selection | Decimal Odds |
|---|---|
| A | 1.50 |
| B | 1.80 |
Calculations:
Sum = 1/1.50 + 1/1.80 = 0.667 + 0.556 = 1.222
Return = $100 / 1.222 = $81.83
Profit = $81.83 - $100 = -$18.17
Combined probability: 122.2% - Over 100% means guaranteed loss!
This demonstrates why dutching only works when combined implied probability is under 100%.
When to Use Dutching
Good Scenarios for Dutching
| Situation | Why It Works |
|---|---|
| Multiple value selections | Capture value across several runners |
| Can’t pick a winner | Profit from any of your shortlist winning |
| Large field events | Combine several contenders |
| Bookmaker promotions | Maximize free bet value |
| Risk reduction | Lower variance than single selection |
Dutching Works Best In
- Horse Racing - Large fields, volatile odds
- Golf Tournaments - Many contenders
- Politics/Entertainment - Uncertain outcomes
- Any sport - When you see value in multiple outcomes
When NOT to Dutch
| Situation | Why Not |
|---|---|
| Combined probability > 100% | Guaranteed loss |
| One clear value selection | Single bet is more profitable |
| Very short odds | Margin eats profits |
| For entertainment only | Extra complexity without benefit |
Dutching vs Other Strategies
Dutching vs Single Bets
| Aspect | Dutching | Single Bet |
|---|---|---|
| Risk | Lower | Higher |
| Potential Profit | Lower | Higher |
| Selections | Multiple | One |
| Complexity | Higher | Simple |
| When to Use | Uncertain, multiple value | Clear single value |
Dutching vs Arbitrage
| Aspect | Dutching | Arbitrage |
|---|---|---|
| Covers | Some outcomes | ALL outcomes |
| Risk | Still have losing scenarios | Zero risk |
| Profit Source | Value betting | Odds discrepancies |
| Typical Return | Higher potential | Lower but guaranteed |
| Availability | Always possible | Rare opportunities |
Dutching vs Each Way
| Aspect | Dutching | Each Way |
|---|---|---|
| Coverage | Multiple runners | One runner, two outcomes |
| Flexibility | Choose any runners | Limited to one selection |
| Place odds | You choose | Fixed fraction (1/4, 1/5) |
| Best for | Spreading risk | Big outsiders |
Advanced Dutching Strategies
Strategy 1: Dutching for Value
Only dutch selections where YOU believe the true probability exceeds the implied probability.
Example:
- Bookmaker odds: 5.00 (20% implied)
- Your estimate: 25% true probability
- Value: +5 percentage points
Dutch multiple value selections for compound value.
Strategy 2: Field Dutching
In large field events (horse racing, golf), dutch a group of contenders.
Example - Golf Major: Dutch 5 players at average odds of 25.00
- If combined probability < 100%, profit if any wins
- Covers multiple realistic winners
Strategy 3: Dutching with Exchanges
Use betting exchanges for better odds and lower margins.
Exchange advantages:
- Better odds (no bookmaker margin)
- Ability to lay if needed
- Often can dutch at lower combined probability
Strategy 4: Progressive Dutching
Adjust your dutch as odds move:
- Set target selections early
- Stake when individual odds hit target
- Recalculate stakes as you add selections
- Final stake distribution based on closing odds
The Mathematics of Profitable Dutching
Break-Even Point
You break even when combined implied probability = 100%
Sum(1/Odds_i) = 1.00
Profit Margin
Your profit margin:
Margin = (1 / Sum(1/Odds_i)) - 1
Example:
- Sum of inverse odds = 0.85
- Margin = (1 / 0.85) - 1 = 17.6% profit
Expected Value of Dutching
If you believe your selections have combined probability P_true:
EV = P_true × Profit - (1 - P_true) × Total Stake
You need:
P_true > Total Stake / Return
For the bet to have positive expected value.
Common Dutching Mistakes
Mistake 1: Dutching Overround Markets
If the market’s total implied probability exceeds 100%, dutching guarantees loss.
Solution: Only dutch when combined implied probability < 100%.
Mistake 2: Including Too Many Selections
More selections mean lower profit per selection.
Solution: Focus on your strongest 2-4 value selections.
Mistake 3: Ignoring Correlation
In some events, selections may be correlated (e.g., horses from same stable).
Solution: Consider the actual probability of multiple selections performing well.
Mistake 4: Chasing Losses with Dutching
Using dutching to “guarantee” recovering losses.
Solution: Stick to value-based selection, not loss recovery.
Dutching Calculator Tips
Getting Accurate Results
- Double-check odds before entering
- Include only serious contenders
- Verify combined probability < 100%
- Round stakes appropriately for your bookmaker
Placing Dutch Bets
- Calculate all stakes first
- Place bets quickly (odds can change)
- Adjust for stake restrictions
- Confirm all bets are placed correctly
Tracking Dutching Performance
Keep records of:
- Combined implied probability at bet time
- Actual outcomes
- ROI over time
- Which types of events work best
Dutching in Horse Racing
Why Horse Racing Suits Dutching
- Large fields - Many potential winners
- Volatile odds - Value opportunities
- Bookmaker offers - Best odds guaranteed, free bets
- Non-runner rule - Stakes returned on scratched horses
Horse Racing Dutch Strategy
- Identify value at key odds levels (e.g., 5.00+)
- Build a shortlist of 3-5 horses
- Wait for optimal odds before placing
- Monitor for non-runners and adjust
Frequently Asked Questions
Is dutching guaranteed to make money?
No. Dutching guarantees equal profit IF one of your selections wins. If none wins, you lose your entire stake. Profit is only guaranteed when combined implied probability is under 100% AND one selection wins.
How many selections should I dutch?
Typically 2-5 selections. More selections reduce profit per selection. Focus on your strongest value picks rather than trying to cover too many outcomes.
What’s a good combined probability for dutching?
Under 90% is good, under 80% is excellent. The lower the combined implied probability, the higher your profit margin if any selection wins.
Can I dutch on any bookmaker?
Yes, you can place the individual bets at any bookmaker(s). Many bettors shop for the best odds on each selection across multiple books to maximize their dutch.
Is dutching the same as arbitrage?
No. Arbitrage covers ALL outcomes guaranteeing profit. Dutching covers multiple (but not all) outcomes - you still lose if none of your dutched selections wins.
Why do my stakes look uneven?
Stakes are proportional to implied probability. Lower odds (favorites) require larger stakes, higher odds (longshots) require smaller stakes, to equalize the potential return.
Start Dutching Your Bets
Use our free dutching calculator above to:
- Select your odds format (decimal, fractional, American)
- Enter your total stake budget
- Add your selections with their odds
- See exact stakes for each selection
- View your guaranteed profit and combined probability
The calculator instantly shows you whether your dutch is profitable and exactly how much to stake on each selection for equal returns.
Pro tip: Always verify the combined implied probability is under 100% before placing your dutch bets. The calculator will show this in green (profitable) or red (losing).