What Is a Forecast Bet?
A forecast is a bet where you predict the first and second place finishers in a race. It’s simpler than a tricast but still offers returns significantly higher than a standard win bet.
Two types:
- Straight Forecast - 1 bet: predict exact order (1st and 2nd)
- Reverse Forecast - 2 bets: your 2 picks in either order
How the Forecast Calculator Works
- Select forecast type - Straight or Reverse
- Enter decimal odds for your 1st and 2nd place selections
- Enter your stake per bet line
- The calculator shows:
- Number of bets (1 or 2)
- Total stake
- Estimated dividend
- Potential payout and profit
Dividend Calculation
Estimated Dividend = Odds₁ × Odds₂
Note: Actual Computer Straight Forecast (CSF) dividends are calculated by the bookmaker using a complex formula that considers the number of runners, odds of all horses, and pool sizes. Our estimate provides a good approximation.
Straight vs Reverse Forecast
| Feature | Straight Forecast | Reverse Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Bets | 1 | 2 |
| Stake | 1× | 2× |
| Order matters | Yes | No |
| Difficulty | Hard | Easier |
| Profit (per unit) | Higher | Lower (due to 2× stake) |
Detailed Examples
Example 1: Straight Forecast
Race: Kempton 2:15, 10 runners
- 1st place pick: Horse A at 3.00 (2/1)
- 2nd place pick: Horse B at 5.00 (4/1)
Stake: $2
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Dividend | 3.00 × 5.00 = 15.00 |
| Payout | $2 × 15.00 = $30.00 |
| Profit | $28.00 |
Example 2: Reverse Forecast
Same picks, $2 per line:
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total Stake | $4 (2 × $2) |
| Dividend (if A-B) | 15.00 |
| Dividend (if B-A) | 15.00 |
| Payout | $30.00 |
| Profit | $26.00 |
Example 3: Big-Priced Forecast
- 1st: Outsider at 10.00 (9/1)
- 2nd: Outsider at 15.00 (14/1)
Dividend: 10.00 × 15.00 = 150.00 $1 stake returns $150.00. Even at just $0.50, you’d get $75.
Forecast vs Win Bet
| Bet Type | Odds (Horse A 3.00) | Correct Prediction |
|---|---|---|
| Win bet | Returns 3.00× | Just needs to win |
| Forecast | Returns 15.00× | Must get 1st AND 2nd right |
Forecasts pay roughly 3-10× more than win bets, but are proportionally harder.
When to Use Forecast Bets
Ideal Scenarios
- Two clear standouts in a race that should dominate
- Maiden races where form is limited but 2 stand out
- Class drops where 2 runners are clearly superior
- Head-to-heads in small fields
- Strong pace scenario where front-runners dominate
When to Avoid
- Wide-open races - too many contenders
- Small fields (< 4 runners) - dividends too small
- No opinion on order - use reverse or consider win bets
- Big handicaps - too unpredictable for just 2 picks
Forecast Strategy Tips
1. Consider the Race Pace
Horses that lead early often fill the first two places:
- Front-runners in small fields
- Strong pace-setters with stamina
2. Form Study for Forecast
Focus on:
- Recent finishing positions (2nd places are forecast gold)
- Course and distance winners
- Going preference on today’s ground
3. Reverse vs Straight Decision
| Confidence Level | Bet Type |
|---|---|
| Very sure of order | Straight (1 bet) |
| Sure of top 2, not order | Reverse (2 bets) |
| 50/50 on order | Reverse is better value |
Forecast vs Tricast
| Feature | Forecast | Tricast |
|---|---|---|
| Positions predicted | 2 | 3 |
| Difficulty | Medium | Very Hard |
| Typical dividend | 10-50× | 50-500× |
| Min runners (usually) | 3 | 8 |
| Combination bets | 2 (reverse) | 6 (combination) |
| Best for | Short fields | Large fields |
Computer Straight Forecast (CSF)
In UK racing, the CSF is calculated using a formula that considers:
- Win odds of both selections
- Number of runners
- Odds of all other runners in the field
The CSF often differs from a simple odds multiplication because:
- Shorter-priced runners produce lower CSF dividends
- Longer-priced runners produce higher CSF dividends
- Larger fields increase CSF dividends
Frequently Asked Questions
What’s the minimum number of runners for a forecast?
Most bookmakers require at least 3 runners for forecasts.
Is a reverse forecast better than a straight forecast?
Reverse covers both orders for 2× stake. Use it when unsure of exact order; use straight when confident.
What’s the difference between forecast and exacta?
Same bet - forecast is UK term, exacta is US term. Both predict first two finishers in exact order.
How is the CSF dividend calculated?
Uses a formula considering all runners’ odds, not just your two picks. Often differs from simple odds multiplication.
Can I combine forecasts with other bets?
Some bookmakers allow forecast accumulators across different races.