What Is Buying/Selling Points?
Buying and selling points is a feature offered by many sportsbooks that lets you adjust the point spread in exchange for changed odds.
- Buying points: Move the spread in your favor (costs more juice/vig)
- Selling points: Move the spread against you (get better odds/less juice)
This feature allows bettors to customize their risk-reward profile on spread bets.
How the Calculator Works
- Enter the original line (e.g., -3.5)
- Enter original odds in American format (e.g., -110)
- Select action - Buy or Sell points
- Select number of points to move (0.5 to 2)
- Enter stake to see adjusted payouts
The calculator shows your new line, adjusted odds, and the payout difference.
Standard Pricing
Most sportsbooks charge approximately 10 cents per half point (10 units of juice):
| Action | Half Points | Odds Change | Example |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy 0.5 | 1 | -10 juice | -110 → -120 |
| Buy 1.0 | 2 | -20 juice | -110 → -130 |
| Buy 1.5 | 3 | -30 juice | -110 → -140 |
| Buy 2.0 | 4 | -40 juice | -110 → -150 |
| Sell 0.5 | 1 | +10 juice | -110 → -100 |
| Sell 1.0 | 2 | +20 juice | -110 → +100 |
| Sell 1.5 | 3 | +30 juice | -110 → +110 |
Exception: Buying through key numbers (3 and 7 in NFL) usually costs more (15-25 cents per half point).
Detailed Examples
Example 1: Buying Through 3 (NFL)
Original: Chiefs -3.5 at -110 Buy 1 point: Chiefs -2.5 at -130 (crossing through 3)
| Metric | Original (-3.5) | Bought (-2.5) | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win probability | ~50% | ~53% | +3% |
| $100 payout | $190.91 | $176.92 | -$13.99 |
| Break-even | 52.4% | 56.5% | +4.1% |
Is it worth it? The 3% win probability gain costs you 4.1% in break-even requirement. In this specific case (crossing 3), the math favors buying because 3-point margins occur ~15% of the time in NFL.
Example 2: Buying Through 7 (NFL)
Original: Packers -7.5 at -110 Buy 1 point: Packers -6.5 at -125
| Metric | Original (-7.5) | Bought (-6.5) | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| $100 payout | $190.91 | $180.00 | -$10.91 |
| Break-even | 52.4% | 55.6% | +3.2% |
Crossing through 7 (touchdown margin) captures ~10% of outcomes. The break-even cost of 3.2% is less than the probability gain, making this a profitable buy.
Example 3: Selling Points
Original: Cowboys -6.5 at -110 Sell 1 point: Cowboys -7.5 at +100
| Metric | Original (-6.5) | Sold (-7.5) | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win probability | ~50% | ~47% | -3% |
| $100 payout | $190.91 | $200.00 | +$9.09 |
| Break-even | 52.4% | 50.0% | -2.4% |
When selling makes sense: If you believe the team will win by 10+ regardless, selling past 7 gives you better odds without much risk.
Example 4: Non-Key Number (Usually Bad)
Original: Bears -5.5 at -110 Buy 0.5 points: Bears -5 at -120
Moving from -5.5 to -5 only captures outcomes where the team wins by exactly 5. This occurs only ~3-4% of the time in NFL, making the buy unprofitable.
Key Number Analysis
NFL Key Numbers
Games decided by exactly these margins:
| Margin | Frequency | Buy Value | Sell Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | ~14.5% | Excellent | Very risky |
| 7 | ~9.5% | Very good | Risky |
| 10 | ~6.0% | Good | Moderate risk |
| 6 | ~5.5% | Moderate | Moderate |
| 14 | ~4.5% | Moderate | Acceptable |
| 4 | ~4.0% | Low | Acceptable |
| 1 | ~4.0% | Low | Acceptable |
| 17 | ~3.5% | Low | Acceptable |
| 13 | ~2.5% | Low | Good |
| 2 | ~2.5% | Low | Good |
NBA Key Numbers
Basketball has fewer meaningful key numbers:
| Margin | Frequency | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | ~7% each | Most common |
| 4-6 | ~5% each | Moderate |
| 7-10 | ~4% each | Less common |
NBA spreads are less “clustered” than NFL, making point buying generally less valuable.
Cost-Benefit Analysis by Scenario
When Buying Is Profitable
The buy is profitable when:
Probability gain from new line > Break-even cost increase
| Scenario | Prob Gain | Cost (BE increase) | Profitable? |
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL -3.5 → -2.5 | ~7-8% | 4.1% | Yes |
| NFL -7.5 → -6.5 | ~5-6% | 3.2% | Yes |
| NFL -10.5 → -9.5 | ~3-4% | 3.2% | Borderline |
| NFL -5.5 → -4.5 | ~2-3% | 3.2% | No |
| NBA -7.5 → -6.5 | ~4% | 3.2% | Borderline |
When Selling Is Profitable
Selling is profitable when you’re confident the margin will be large:
| Scenario | Prob Lost | Gain (BE decrease) | Good When |
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL -6.5 → -7.5 | ~5% | 2.4% | Blowout expected |
| NFL -2.5 → -3.5 | ~7% | 2.4% | Very risky |
| NFL -13.5 → -14.5 | ~2% | 2.4% | Good value |
Buying Points in Parlays
Some bettors buy points on individual parlay legs:
| Strategy | Pros | Cons |
|---|---|---|
| Buy all legs | More likely to win | Greatly reduced payout |
| Buy key legs only | Targeted improvement | Moderate cost |
| Don’t buy | Maximum payout | Standard risk |
Recommendation: Only buy through key numbers in parlays. The compounding effect of buying non-key numbers makes parlays significantly less profitable.
Half-Point Rules by Sport
| Sport | Key Numbers | Buy Value | Best Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 3, 7, 10 | High (key numbers) | Buy through 3 and 7 only |
| NBA | None specific | Low-Moderate | Rarely worth buying |
| NHL | 1 | Moderate (low-scoring) | Buy off 1.5 sometimes |
| MLB | 1 | Moderate (run lines) | Buy off 1.5 → 2.5 |
| Soccer | 1 | Moderate | Asian handicap alternatives better |
Common Mistakes
1. Buying Through Non-Key Numbers
Moving from -5.5 to -4.5 or -9.5 to -8.5 rarely captures enough outcomes to justify the cost.
2. Buying Too Many Points
Each additional half point costs the same juice but captures fewer outcomes. The first half point through a key number is most valuable.
3. Not Comparing Alternate Lines
Many sportsbooks offer alternate spreads with adjusted odds. Sometimes the alternate line has better pricing than buying points.
4. Ignoring Totals
Buying points on totals can be valuable too. Key totals in NFL include 41, 43, and 51 (multiples of 7).
Frequently Asked Questions
Is buying points profitable?
Buying through NFL key numbers (3 and 7) can be profitable. Non-key numbers are generally unprofitable.
Do all sportsbooks offer buying points?
Most major sportsbooks offer this feature, but pricing varies. Always compare before buying.
How much does it cost to buy through 3 in the NFL?
Most books charge 20-25 cents (extra juice) through key number 3, compared to standard 10 cents per half point.
Can I sell points instead of buying them?
Yes, selling gives you better odds but moves the spread against you. Profitable when expecting a large margin of victory.
Should I buy points in parlays?
Only through key numbers. The compounding juice effect makes non-key buys very expensive in parlays.
Is buying points better than using alternate spreads?
Sometimes alternate spreads offer better pricing. Always compare both options at your sportsbook.