What Is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet is the simplest form of sports betting - you pick the winner of the game. No point spreads, no totals, just who wins.
How moneyline odds work:
- Negative odds (-150): How much you risk to win $100
- Positive odds (+200): How much you win on a $100 bet
- Even money (+100/-100): Risk $100 to win $100
How the Calculator Works
- Enter moneyline odds (e.g., -150 or +200)
- Choose bet mode - Risk amount or To Win amount
- Enter amount
- See: risk, potential win, total payout, implied probability, decimal odds
Understanding Moneyline Odds
Favorites (Negative Odds)
| Odds | Risk to Win $100 | Implied Prob | Decimal |
|---|---|---|---|
| -110 | $110 | 52.4% | 1.91 |
| -130 | $130 | 56.5% | 1.77 |
| -150 | $150 | 60.0% | 1.67 |
| -200 | $200 | 66.7% | 1.50 |
| -250 | $250 | 71.4% | 1.40 |
| -300 | $300 | 75.0% | 1.33 |
| -400 | $400 | 80.0% | 1.25 |
| -500 | $500 | 83.3% | 1.20 |
Underdogs (Positive Odds)
| Odds | Win on $100 Bet | Implied Prob | Decimal |
|---|---|---|---|
| +100 | $100 | 50.0% | 2.00 |
| +120 | $120 | 45.5% | 2.20 |
| +150 | $150 | 40.0% | 2.50 |
| +200 | $200 | 33.3% | 3.00 |
| +300 | $300 | 25.0% | 4.00 |
| +400 | $400 | 20.0% | 5.00 |
| +500 | $500 | 16.7% | 6.00 |
| +1000 | $1,000 | 9.1% | 11.00 |
Risk vs To Win Mode
Risk Mode
You specify how much to bet. Calculator shows potential winnings.
| Odds | Risk | Win | Total Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| -150 | $150 | $100 | $250 |
| -150 | $75 | $50 | $125 |
| +200 | $50 | $100 | $150 |
| +200 | $100 | $200 | $300 |
To Win Mode
You specify desired profit. Calculator shows required stake.
| Odds | Want to Win | Must Risk | Total Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| -150 | $100 | $150 | $250 |
| -150 | $50 | $75 | $125 |
| +200 | $200 | $100 | $300 |
| +200 | $500 | $250 | $750 |
Payout Formulas
For Negative Odds (Favorites)
Win Amount = Stake × (100 / |Odds|)
Total Payout = Stake + Win Amount
Example: $75 bet at -150
- Win = $75 × (100/150) = $50
- Total Payout = $75 + $50 = $125
For Positive Odds (Underdogs)
Win Amount = Stake × (Odds / 100)
Total Payout = Stake + Win Amount
Example: $50 bet at +200
- Win = $50 × (200/100) = $100
- Total Payout = $50 + $100 = $150
Moneyline Odds Conversion
To Decimal Odds
Positive: Decimal = (ML / 100) + 1
Negative: Decimal = (100 / |ML|) + 1
To Fractional Odds
Positive: Fraction = ML / 100
Negative: Fraction = 100 / |ML|
Full Conversion Table
| Moneyline | Decimal | Fractional | Implied Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| -500 | 1.20 | 1/5 | 83.3% |
| -300 | 1.33 | 1/3 | 75.0% |
| -200 | 1.50 | 1/2 | 66.7% |
| -150 | 1.67 | 2/3 | 60.0% |
| -130 | 1.77 | 10/13 | 56.5% |
| -110 | 1.91 | 10/11 | 52.4% |
| +100 | 2.00 | 1/1 | 50.0% |
| +110 | 2.10 | 11/10 | 47.6% |
| +130 | 2.30 | 13/10 | 43.5% |
| +150 | 2.50 | 3/2 | 40.0% |
| +200 | 3.00 | 2/1 | 33.3% |
| +300 | 4.00 | 3/1 | 25.0% |
| +500 | 6.00 | 5/1 | 16.7% |
Implied Probability and Vig
How the Vig Works
The vig (juice/vigorish) is the bookmaker’s profit margin. You can see it when both sides’ implied probabilities sum to more than 100%:
| Matchup | Odds | Implied Prob |
|---|---|---|
| Team A | -150 | 60.0% |
| Team B | +130 | 43.5% |
| Total | 103.5% | |
| Vig | 3.5% |
The “true” probabilities are closer to:
- Team A: 60.0% / 1.035 = 58.0%
- Team B: 43.5% / 1.035 = 42.0%
Removing the Vig
To find “no-vig” odds (fair odds):
True Prob A = Implied A / (Implied A + Implied B)
True Prob B = Implied B / (Implied A + Implied B)
Moneyline Strategy
1. Line Shopping
Moneyline odds vary significantly between books. A -150 at one book might be -140 at another:
| Book | Odds | $100 bet profit | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Book A | -150 | $66.67 | baseline |
| Book B | -145 | $68.97 | +$2.30 |
| Book C | -140 | $71.43 | +$4.76 |
Over hundreds of bets, these differences compound significantly.
2. Favorites vs Underdogs
| Approach | Pros | Cons |
|---|---|---|
| Betting favorites | Higher win rate | Less profit per win, big losses |
| Betting underdogs | Larger payouts | Lower win rate |
| Mixed approach | Balanced P&L | Requires discipline |
Key insight: Neither is inherently better. The edge comes from finding mispriced lines, not from systematic favorite/underdog bias.
3. When to Use Moneyline vs Spread
| Scenario | Better Choice | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Small favorite (-1 to -3) | Moneyline | Spread is too tight |
| Medium favorite (-4 to -7) | Depends on odds | Compare ML vs -110 |
| Large favorite (-8+) | Spread usually | ML too expensive |
| Small underdog (+1 to +3) | Moneyline | Good value on outright win |
| Large underdog (+7+) | Spread usually | ML rarely hits |
4. Moneyline Parlays
Moneyline bets are common in parlays because they’re simple. However:
- Heavy favorite parlays are deceptively risky
- A 3-team parlay of -200 favorites: each leg ~67%, parlay ~30%
- One loss wipes out multiple wins worth of profit
Common Moneyline Mistakes
1. Chasing Heavy Favorites
Betting -400 favorites feels “safe” but:
- Win $25 on a $100 bet
- Need to win 4 in a row to profit $100
- One loss erases 4 wins of profit
2. Ignoring the Vig
A -110/-110 line means you need 52.4% to break even. Many bettors forget this hidden cost.
3. Overvaluing Win Probability
High implied probability ≠ good bet. A -300 team has 75% implied probability, but if their true chance is only 72%, it’s a losing bet.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does -110 mean?
You need to risk $110 to win $100. This is the standard vig charged by sportsbooks, giving them a 4.5% margin.
Is it better to bet favorites or underdogs?
Neither inherently. The key is finding value where your estimated probability exceeds the implied probability.
What’s the difference between moneyline and spread?
Moneyline: pick the winner, odds vary. Spread: win by X points, both sides typically -110.
How do I calculate implied probability from moneyline odds?
Negative: |Odds|/(|Odds|+100). Positive: 100/(Odds+100). Example: -150 = 60%, +200 = 33.3%.
Why are moneyline odds different at different sportsbooks?
Each book sets odds based on risk exposure and betting action. This creates line shopping opportunities.
Can I parlay moneyline bets?
Yes, very common. Multiply decimal odds for combined payout. Be cautious with heavy favorite parlays.